A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
